Tis the Season...To make crazy predictions in writing that can be tested over the course of the year and checked in one year's time!
As a Formula One racing fan I look forward to the blogs that post not only the predictions for the new season to come, but also the review of how poorly the analysts' predictions were for the previous season. I make my own predictions, but I rarely share them with others. Also, I do not go out of my way to see how well (or poorly) I have done. I have never been a huge fan of grading my work.
Last year I made a few predictions:
- ICD-10 will happen in October 2014 (it didn't)
- 2014 will be the year that everyone will use Direct to exchange health information with providers across the continuum of care (it wasn't)
- Stage 3 will come out and it will rock patient engagement efforts (no rule came out)
- Clinical Quality Measures will be a big focus in 2014, and will drive process improvement efforts in hospitals and clinics (it never happened)
Yikes. Why am I doing this? Oh yeah, it's part of my job and I like it! Anyway, goodbye 2014 and it's difficult to predict ways, hello 2015! I think I got this...
ICD-10
YES, IT WILL HAPPEN! October 2015 will be the ICD-10 change for health care. This will be tough on many hospitals and clinics, particularly in rural. Many STILL do not understand that this is more than training coders and physicians. You need to test, change interface configurations, test, test some more, change processes and test a few more times. This is a big deal, and make sure you take a look at the ICD-10 Implementation Toolkit on our site!
The Meaningful Use Reporting Period in 2015 Will be 90 Days
I am only going on a slight limb here. There seems to be a bunch of concern (me included) about reporting over a full year in 2015. Particularly if this is the first year for Stage 2 for a hospital or clinic, meeting the measures over the 12 calendar months will be difficult. The problem is that the wheels of regulatory change can move slowly (remember the Meaningful Use Flexibility Rule timing?), so get busy on Thursday, January 1 getting those patient engagement and transitions of care numbers up! P.S. It is the right thing to do, and people want this, which means...
2015 Will be the Year of the Engaged Patient
I know, I know. I have been saying this for a couple of years now. A few things have changed though. Nationally we are just more "wired" now. More people have smart phones and decent internet and can access things whenever they want. People are used to buying online, they expect to do business with people who remember their preferences in an electronic system, and they want to have their health information electronically. Ask anyone you know "would you like to have access to your health information, including lab results, physician reports, and other information electronically?" The answer is almost always "yes" or "I wish my physician had access to that information". We are at an interesting, and frustrating time for HIT. Expect to hear from more patients who want access to their information, and want it now. It is their right!
Stage 3 Will Hammer on Quality Measures and Interoperability
This is probably my easiest, and safest prediction, because we have been hearing about it for a while. Stage 3 of Meaningful Use will include a ton of requirements around Clinical Quality Measure (CQM) reporting and public reporting of the data, along with a method of "graduating" from the Meaningful Use program if you are getting good scores. Also, with the "Cromnibus" bill that passed a couple of weeks ago, there were provisions for ONC to remove certification for EHRs that do not play well with others. That's a sign of things to come, and I have heard many rumblings that FTC and ONC are taking a long, hard look at some of the practices that EHR vendors have done, particularly in rural, to make interoperability more difficult in favor of single-vendor communities.
Security Breaches, and HIPAA Fines, will Grow Dramatically in 2015
There have been a number of high profile security breaches in 2014, all of which were preventable. The pilot HIPAA audits that OCR did in 2014 will be expanded, and there will undoubtedly be many fines handed out for poor security practices at health care providers and business associates. More malicious code and data ransom attacks are what I predict, unfortunately. Beef up (and for goodness sake UPGRADE) those firewalls!
mHealth Killer App
Finally, I think there will be a killer app that will really take off in 2015. Mobile Health (mHealth) and wearables, like the FitBit or Apple Watch, will provide all sorts of opportunities to assist providers. Consider that a patient can now show the physician their heart rate throughout the day, and with the amount of data that can be stored now, why not show the entire heart rhythm for a several day period? Chronic disease management, particularly diabetes, will soon have a number of apps and devices ready for market that can automate the collection of critical medical data. Wearables and other mobile-enabled devices will change how patients see their health, respond to the health and even access their health care. We need to be aware and prepare for this mHealth revolution!
There, I put it out there. These are industry-wide predictions that will affect rural HIT the most, or that rural providers need to consider now to be prepared. There are other things that will happen next year, but I am afraid to say too much. You may think I am a fortune teller!
Happy New Year!
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